How BREAKINDEX works.
We watch real breaks, write down what every spot sold for, and turn it into simple answers. Here's how, in plain words.
Where the numbers come from
Breakers sell spots in live breaks on Fanatics Live and Whatnot. Those sales are public. We record each spot and the price it sold for.
- A breaker lists a break, like one case of a new product.
- People buy spots, like a team or a driver.
- We record every spot at the price the breaker listed.
- When a break sells out, we add it to the numbers you see.
We only use breaks we have seen. If a break is missing, it isn't in the numbers. So early on, when only a few breaks have sold, we say so.
What "usually sells for" means
It's the middle price. Line up every sale from lowest to highest, and pick the one in the middle. One very high or very low sale can't pull it far.
What a fair price is
The fair price is the middle half of all sales for a spot. A quarter of sales were cheaper and a quarter cost more. Half landed inside the fair price.
When you type a price into the spot checker, we tell you where it lands:
- Good deal: below the fair price.
- Normal: inside the fair price.
- Pricey: above the fair price.
If a spot has only sold once, there's no range yet. Then we call anything within 10% of that one price normal, and we tell you it's an early read.
Why we divide by cases
Some breaks open one case. Others open two, three or more. In a 3-case break, one spot gets that team's or driver's cards from all 3 cases, so it costs more.
To compare fairly, we divide each spot price by the number of cases in the break. That's the per case price. To guess the price in a bigger break, multiply: a 3-case break costs about 3× the per case price.
What bundled spots are
Sometimes a breaker sells spots together as one deal. The listing may show $0 for the extra spot. We count it at the price the breaker listed for it.
Some spots are sold as a pair, like "Reds + Tigers". One price covers two teams, so we leave these out of single team and driver prices.
How sure is this?
Every answer comes with a label, so you know how much to trust it.
- Very early: just one sale so far.
- Early read: a few sales or breaks. Good to know, but it can still change.
- Getting clearer: 5 to 14 sold-out breaks.
- Solid: 5 or more sales of a spot, or 15 or more sold-out breaks of a product.
We always show where an answer came from: how many breaks, how many cases, which breakers and which dates.
Comparing breakers
We compare each breaker's prices with the average price for the same teams or drivers. "Above average" or "below average" isn't good or bad by itself. Breakers differ in shipping, extras and how they run a show.
The Breaker Rankings line breakers up from most expensive to cheapest. A breaker is ranked only once another breaker has sold the same spots. What a whole case sold for can tell a different story, because breakers bundle spots differently, so we show both.
This isn't financial advice
BREAKINDEX shows what spots have sold for. It can't tell you what cards you'll pull or what they'll be worth. Breaks are entertainment. Only spend what you're happy to spend.
BREAKINDEX is independent. We're not part of Topps, Fanatics, Fanatics Live, Whatnot or Upper Deck.